The Conservatives could be reduced to just six MPs in Kent at the General Election, a major new poll has found.
The 15,000-person survey was used to create a seat-by-seat breakdown across the country, which shows Rishi Sunak’s party could be left with fewer than 100.
It indicated the Tories would be wiped out in Scotland and Wales and hold just 98 seats in England – representing their worst election result.
In Kent, the Conservatives are forecast to hold onto just six constituencies – Faversham and Mid Kent, Sevenoaks, Sittingbourne and Sheppey, Tonbridge, Tunbridge Wells, and Weald of Kent.
Meanwhile, Labour would win all the other 12 up for grabs – including Tory strongholds such as Folkestone and Hythe, which even stuck with the Tories when Tony Blair stormed to victory in 1997. That year, the Conservatives were left with a total of 165 MPs.
The Kent seats Sir Keir Starmer’s party is predicted to win are: Ashford, Canterbury, Chatham and Aylesford, Dartford, Dover and Deal, East Thanet, Folkestone and Hythe, Gillingham and Rainham, Gravesham, Herne Bay and Sandwich, Maidstone and Malling, and Rochester and Strood.
The survey put Labour on 45% with a 19-point lead over the Tories on 26%.
The constituency forecast suggested Labour could be on course for a landslide, winning 468 seats.
The poll suggests the Scottish National Party would pick up 41, the Liberal Democrats 22 and Plaid Cymru two.
In 2019 the Conservatives had 365 seats, Labour 203, the SNP 48, the Lib Dems 11 and Plaid four.
In an analysis which will fuel Conservative unease about the threat from Reform UK, the survey suggested Richard Tice’s party will come second in seven seats and achieve an overall vote share of 8.5%, just behind the Liberal Democrats on 10.4%.
But a model of what would happen if Reform UK did not stand suggested the Tories would win 150 seats – still a crushing defeat, but potentially giving Mr Sunak, or more likely his replacement, a better chance to rebuild.
The study, carried out by Survation for the internationalist Best for Britain campaign group, suggested several Cabinet ministers, including potential leadership contenders, could be ousted at the election as the Tories face their worst result.
Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, Home Secretary James Cleverly and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps would all lose their seats, according to the study, which used a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) process to model constituency-level results.
Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch looks likely to retain her seat, along with former home secretary Suella Braverman and ex-immigration minister Robert Jenrick.
In Mr Sunak’s new Richmond and Northallerton seat, which, based on the 2019 results should be solidly Conservative, he has just a 2.4% lead over Labour, while Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has just a 1% margin over the Liberal Democrats in his new Godalming and Ash seat.
Best for Britain chief executive Naomi Smith said: “With the polling showing swathes of voters turning their backs on the Tories, it’s clear that this will be a change election.”
The poll of 15,029 adults and MRP analysis by Survation was conducted between March 8-22.
In a sign of Reform UK’s ambitions, Tory MP Bob Seely revealed he had been approached to defect to the Nigel Farage-linked party.
Writing in the Sun on Sunday, he said: “I said no to Reform because I believe in loyalty. I believed in loyalty when I served in the British Army and I believe it when I serve my constituents on the Isle of Wight, and I believe in it when I am supporting Rishi Sunak.
“I don’t cut and run, and neither should we.”
A Reform spokesman told the newspaper: “If he wants to turn down the only chance he has of saving his skin, well, that’s up to him.”
