Britain’s leading hospitality groups saw their sales fall by a combined 0.4% in April 2026, according to the latest NIQ RSM Hospitality Business Tracker. It’s the third month of negative growth out of four so far this year.
For small, independent operators, the picture is likely even bleaker. The tracker captures sales from some of the country’s largest hospitality groups, many of which can negotiate supplier deals at scale, spread fixed costs across multiple sites, and absorb a bad month at one venue with profits from others.
Independent pubs, restaurants and cafés don’t enjoy this cushion, so capitalising on major sporting events like the World Cup, which kicks off in just a few weeks, is all the more crucial.
Rising costs and rain make for a bleak picture
Year on year, restaurant sales are flat, tracking at 0.1% above April 2025, NIQ’s data, produced in association with RSM, shows. This is, however, a significant drop from March’s figures, during which a 2.5% growth rate was achieved.
Pub groups included in the tracker’s dataset, on the other hand, saw their sales drop by 0.2%. This is actually the first month that sales fell for pubs this year, and it seems the wet weather we experienced in April was to blame, leaving “pub gardens and terraces in some parts of the country empty”, including on the all-important easter weekend.
Bars continue to struggle too, with like-for-like sales dropping 5.6%, making April the toughest month for trading since October 2025, RSM says.
Hospitality outlook bleak, but the World Cup is around the corner
RSM’s Hospitality Business Tracker includes data from over 100 pub, bar and restaurant groups, including Wagamama, Nandos, Green King, and the Azurri group, which owns Zizzi’s and Ask Italian. Overall, they represent more than 11,000 hospitality venues across the UK.
But as mentioned previously, these firms are much better at absorbing costs. Every cost rise, from food and energy to April’s higher employer National Insurance Contributions (NICs) and National Minimum Wage hike, hits a smaller venue’s bottom line in a much more catastrophic way.
Data from the same organisation, NIQ, shared earlier this quarter showed UK hospitality lost 3.4 sites a day (net) in the first three months of 2026, and that this closure rate was weighted heavily towards smaller, independent venues.
A summer of sport in the shape of the World Cup, then, couldn’t come much sooner. According to one estimate published this week, hospitality spending during the World Cup is expected to surge by 150% when compared with data from Euro 2024, so it’s a golden opportunity for venues of all sizes to make back some of the lost ground.
“The industry is working incredibly hard just to stand still, with operators continuing to cut back on employment to manage soaring costs”, Saxon Moseley, Head of Leisure and Hospitality at RSM, explains.
“The industry will be hoping that a successful summer of sport and good weather can lift spirits and drive growth in these challenging times.”
What else can small hospitality businesses do to boost sales and cut costs?
With margins this tight, even small changes can make a meaningful difference.
By now, smaller venues should be well into planning for the big World Cup games, including lining up screening packages, making final decisions on menu changes and other food-based deals, and reviewing security and capacity requirements ahead of the impending spending surge.
Introducing themed nights on weekdays, such as pub quizzes, to combat midweek lulls in footfall could also prove an astute way to keep spending more consistent across the week, so revenue around those late-night fixtures isn’t the be-all and end-all.
Crucially, however, independents should not underestimate the advantage they have over larger groups like the chains included in the RSM tracker: a distinctive identity and deep ties to the local area.
A strong local identity, visible owners, and a presence on community Facebook groups and Google reviews are things larger groups cannot replicate easily. Leaning into that edge and shouting more about the social value a venue brings to the community that exists around it may be what separates those who thrive from those who barely survive.
Planet of the Grapes founder Matt Harris has over 25 years of experience in hospitality. Read his bi-monthly column for Startups now.
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