[openai_chatbot] rewrite this content and keep HTML tags as is:
Most regions have seen 10-20% falls in the share of new homes (flats and houses) sold off-plan since 2016, as investors continue to shy away from locking in purchases two or three years before they’re built due to the expectation that prices may not be higher by the time they’re complete.
This is a reversal of 2016 trends, when investors were keen to lock in sales when prices were rising quickly.
Hamptons’ annual off-plan sales index, which draws on data from across England & Wales, shows that cities across the North West have bucked the downward trend, emerging as hotspots for off-plan flat sales.
Some 63% of new-build flats in England & Wales were sold off-plan in the North West in 2024, the first time since 2007 that any region saw more flats sold off-plan than London.
Four in five – 80% – of new flats in Salford were sold before they were built last year, the highest share in any local authority in the country.
But nationally, the share of new homes (both houses and flats) sold off-plan fell to 31% last year, the lowest proportion since 2012 and down from a peak of 49% in 2016.
Towns and cities where over half of flats were sold off-plan in 2024:
| Salford | 80% |
| Liverpool | 75% |
| Broxbourne | 75% |
| Bradford | 65% |
| Selby | 64% |
| Derby | 64% |
| Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole | 64% |
| Doncaster | 60% |
| Rochdale | 58% |
| London | 55% |
| Gateshead | 53% |
Source: Hamptons & Land Registry. Local authorities with 100+ flat sales only
Over half of all new flats were sold off-plan in 10 other smaller northern cities and larger towns. These include Bradford (65%), Selby (64%), Derby (64%), Doncaster (60%), Rochdale (58%) and Gateshead (53%) (table 1). Back in 2016, the list was dominated by London boroughs, with only five of the top 10 local authorities located outside the capital.
Across the North West as a whole, 63% of flats were sold off-plan last year, the highest figure for any region in England & Wales (table 2). The North West has seen some of the highest house price growth in the country and investors have been keen to lock in sales at 2024 prices.
Meanwhile, in London, where house price growth has been sluggish, 55% of flats were sold before they were built, down from 59% in 2023.
This shift marks the first time since 2007 that a higher proportion of new flats were sold off-plan in the North West, or any other region, than in London. The share of flats sold off-plan in the capital peaked at 81% in 2016, following a period when property prices in London rose quickly as they recovered from the 2008 financial crash.
Flats are the bellwether of the off-plan market. Since 2016, the share of flats sold off-plan has fallen from 73% to 50% in 2024. This is a larger fall than houses have recorded, which are more likely to be bought by owner-occupiers.
Share of flats sold off-plan by region:
| 2016 | 2024 | Change | |
| London | 81% | 55% | -25% |
| South East | 69% | 38% | -31% |
| South West | 68% | 43% | -25% |
| East | 72% | 54% | -17% |
| East Midlands | 61% | 50% | -11% |
| West Midlands | 66% | 46% | -19% |
| North East | 69% | 36% | -34% |
| North West | 78% | 63% | -15% |
| Yorkshire & Humber | 70% | 43% | -27% |
| Wales | 70% | 50% | -20% |
| Eng & Wales | 73% | 50% | -22% |
Source: Hamptons & Land Registry
David Fell, lead analyst at Hamptons, said: “Off-plan sales have held up in Northern England which has seen the bulk of house price growth since 2016. Investors from across the country, who are a key source of demand for off-plan sales, have continued to buy in these areas to lock in today’s prices for developments which often won’t be finished for years. The expectation that prices will be higher tomorrow remains one of the biggest drivers of off-plan sales for both investors and owner-occupiers.
“But nationally, fewer new homes finding a buyer before they’re built has hit housebuilders hard. It is unlikely that the level of off-plan sales being agreed is sufficient for the government to get close to its 300,000 homes target, given that housebuilders rely on this forward funding to progress on site. While bulk deals with institutional investors have helped, they haven’t replaced demand from smaller landlords.
“Last November’s rise in the stamp duty surcharge on second homes from 3% to 5% hit many off-plan investor purchases which completed last year but agreed and exchanged in 2023 or even 2022. The higher stamp duty surcharge has kept a cap on the number of investor purchases being agreed today, which will almost certainly mean fewer homes being built tomorrow.”
[/openai_chatbot]
#Share #homes #sold #offplan #drops #yearonyear
