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The best approach to dealing with Trump? Resist the hysteria and remember how the President thinks, writes former US Embassy London specialist Michael Martins in today’s Notebook
Trump’s back – now what?
The day has arrived: President Trump’s first full day back in the White House, and so far, the global response has both surprised and unsurprised me.
True to form, Trump has launched a series of bold domestic and foreign policy announcements. True to form, much of the Davos elite continue to ridicule him from the Alps.
After working for the US government during President Trump’s first term, I’ve learned that understanding how the US government functions and how Trump uses that apparatus of power to advance his interests is the only way to cut through the ALL-CAPS posts and sensational headlines, most of which are more about hating the man rather than analysing the action.
Take Greenland, a topic raised by several of Overton’s Danish clients. Why would Trump want to buy or even invade it? Ostensibly to counter Russian naval access to the Atlantic, confront China over critical minerals and pressure Denmark to hit their two per cent NATO target.
The likelier explanation, though, lies in Trump extracting as much value as possible from a routine pre-inauguration national security briefing.
Trump probably took a standard briefing as a golden opportunity to extract as much political value as possible: pressure multiple European countries to pay more to NATO (win), extract concessions over Greenland’s mineral rights (win), increase leverage over EU and NATO members (win), confront China and Russia (win) and have his political base see him winning before even getting to the White House (win).
Even the most ardent opponent must admire the resourcefulness.
So, what next? The best advice is to view every action through his consistent lens: he values winning and the optics of winning and will use his access to the world’s premier diplomatic and intelligence corps to get those wins.
Accepting that reality will help City AM’s large C-suite readership avoid reactive handwringing and open the next four years up as a golden opportunity to extract as much corporate value as possible, as Zuckerberg, Bezos, Musk, Chew and others have already shown possible.
Civil servants should spend a fortnight a year working at a startup
Most efforts to reform the civil service usually end up being hiring freezes or box-tick exercises using the latest buzzwords from a McKinsey report. I think most civil servants, especially from HM Treasury or the Department for Business, should experience life on the frontlines before they suggest increasing costs for business owners or offering fiscal incentives to a big company that pays corporation tax elsewhere. Most owners would also probably see the value in paying for the secondment, given the new linkage it would give to Whitehall.
When will the Conservatives confirm which taxes they intend to cut for business?
With Kemi Badenoch installed as leader, the Conservatives have firmly turned their guns on the Labour government’s policy agenda. They have strongly criticised Labour’s decisions to make it harder to start, run and grow a business in the UK, but I’ve heard much less about which specific taxes the Conservatives plan to cut and which incentives they would bring in. The Conservatives should rebuild trust with business (it’s not like they spent their time in power cutting taxes, either), be explicit and create an actual dividing line between themselves, Labour and Reform.
Watt’s words of wisdom fail to land
James Watt, semi-famous on Linkedin for cringe PR stunts and long posts about how hard he works, recently suggested his Instagram followers abandon work-life balance and find a like-minded partner (he’s recently engaged). Sound dating advice for LBS maybe, but he retreated after backlash in the comments section – before doubling down again about it on Linkedin (naturally). Watt’s advice may suit entrepreneurs trading unlimited risk for unlimited reward, but most people work for fixed salaries, unaffected by extra hours or risks. Perhaps this mindset explains why only a third of Brewdog employees recommend working there.
A recommendation
Tomorrow, and Tomorrow, and Tomorrow by Gabrielle Zevin
I lost a dear friend very suddenly right before Christmas. It is the first time I’ve lost someone that close to me, and it was therefore a difficult festive period, but Gabrielle Zevin’s book was a book that found me and helped soften some of the holiday’s harder moments.
A beautifully written rumination about the challenges and joys of starting and growing a business, lifelong friendship and being open to ideas and criticism from honest friends and wise mentors, it was my favourite read of 2024 and I would recommend to anyone that has started a business, lost a friend or had a frolleague (a friend, who also happens to be a colleague) and knows how special those bonds can be.
Michael Martins is the founder of Overton Advisory and a former political and economic specialist at US embassy London
