Key takeaways from September’s House Price Index:
- The average asking price of a home has risen by 0.4% this month, to £370,257
- However, prices are now 0.1% below this time last year – the first annual fall since January 2024
- The south is driving this year-on-year price dip, with London and southern regions seeing the biggest average price falls
- Despite pressure on prices, sales agreed are still running 4% higher than last year
September has seen the first monthly price rise since May, with average asking prices nudging up by 0.4% (+£1,517). However, prices are slightly lower than a year ago, down 0.1% after a summer of competitive pricing.
Our property expert, Colleen Babcock, explains: “We expect to see a slight uptick in new seller asking prices in September, with the traditional back-to-school season boosting activity heading into autumn. This year’s 0.4% rise is a little below the long-term average of 0.6% for this time of year.”
The good news for sellers is that activity remains strong: sales agreed are up 4% on last year, showing that well-priced homes are continuing to find buyers.
Regional differences are shaping the market
The housing market can differ a lot based on whereabouts you are in Great Britain. For example, prices in the South West are 1.3% lower than a year ago, while the North West has seen a 3.2% rise. These differences reflect the balance of supply and demand in each area – fewer homes for sale and more buyers making enquiries can push up house prices in an area, while increased supply and lower demand can mean house prices fall.
In some parts of the south of England, more homes are coming onto the market: up 9% year-on-year, compared with only 2% elsewhere. That extra choice means buyers can take a little more time, while sellers need to price competitively to stand out, and homes are also taking slightly longer to find a buyer in these areas. By contrast, in places where supply is tighter, such as parts of the Midlands, the North, Wales, and Scotland, well-presented homes continue to move more quickly. Check how long homes are taking to sell in your area in our full House Price Index.
Importantly, activity is still holding up: across the south, sales are 3% higher than this time last year, with an even stronger 5% uplift outside London and the South East.
Looking ahead: what could happen with the Autumn Budget?
One factor that could shape the market in the coming months is the Autumn Budget. Speculation around possible property tax changes is adding a layer of uncertainty, particularly for higher-value homes. Colleen notes: “Rumours of property tax changes began swirling in mid-August, and with the Budget itself not arriving until the end of November, this kind of extended uncertainty can affect market activity, especially in the higher price brackets. Movers want to be confident in planning their costs.”
If stamp duty thresholds were to change, London would feel the biggest impact, with nearly six in ten sales above £500,000. In other parts of England, the share is lower, and just 8% in the North East. You can read more about the rumoured property tax changes here.
What local experts are seeing
Matt Giggs, founder of The Giggs Group in Cambridgeshire, says: “Sellers who reduced their price expectations over the summer are now creating more realistic conditions for sales, which is keeping things moving. We’re finding that well-presented, competitively priced homes are still attracting strong interest, and the high choice of homes for sale is also encouraging buyers.”
Matt Thompson from Chestertons comments on London: “Over recent months, the dynamics of the capital’s property market have shifted, with some boroughs not experiencing the activity or price growth traditionally associated with a world city. While this has required buyers and sellers to adjust their approach, it has also created opportunities for house hunters to access homes that were previously out of reach.”
Thinking about your next move?
Whether you’re looking to buy a home in today’s more buyer-friendly market, or getting ready to sell, there are tools to guide you. You can check what’s for sale near you, find out what homes near you have sold for, or find out what your home might be worth. Whatever stage you’re at, we’re here to help.
