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A particularly laughable defence of socialism is that it’s never really been tried. It’s tempting to dismiss the central analysis of both candidates for the Tory leadership – that their Party lost the general election because they were not conservative enough in government – on similar grounds. But it would be a mistake to imagine Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick are advocating for a ‘lurch to the right’ in a Tory version of the Corbyn experiment.
First, because the evidence backs them up. Even Labour agrees that a lack of economic growth is the source of many of Britain’s problems. The outward signs of that failure – the tax burden, the increasing difficulty of owning a home, expanding regulatory burdens on businesses and the erosion of trust in institutions – also happen to be signs of a country that has become less conservative despite 14 years of Conservative government. That is not a coincidence and suggesting that these trends should be reversed is not a fringe position.
Simple maths tells you that if you can add the 14.3 per cent vote share Reform achieved in 2024 to the Tories’ 23.7 per cent, you’d get a commanding majority. But politics isn’t simple
And while the candidates broadly agree on what went wrong, they differ on how to fix it. Jenrick’s plan is to “unite the right” by winning back Reform voters with pledges to dramatically cut immigration and leave the ECHR. Simple maths tells you that if you can add the 14.3 per cent vote share Reform achieved in 2024 to the Tories’ 23.7 per cent, you’d get a commanding majority. But politics isn’t simple, and allowing Nigel Farage to pick your battlefield is a dangerous ploy. Reform voters aren’t axiomatically more natural conservatives than those who left the party for Labour or the Lib Dems. And given the discord Brexit caused, is a strategy centred on leaving another European organisation really the way to win back trust?
Badenoch, on the other hand, believes that the very machinery of government is inimical to Conservative ideas and that the state needs to be fundamentally rewired. Her focus on principles rather than policies has won her the support of centrist grandees like Damien Green and William Hague. She may be right that Tories will have a few years in the wilderness of opposition to work out what they believe in, but Labour could do real damage in that time. Conservatives will have to present the public with a credible alternative eventually, and some of Badenoch’s pugilistic comments – about identity politics and maternity leave for example – may make some moderates feel her principles lead her to disagreeable conclusions.
A tiny electorate of around 100,000 members must now decide their party’s future and – whether it’s losing referendums, betting on election results or trying (and failing) to skew the odds in James Cleverly’s favour – Tories have shown themselves to be very bad gamblers. But given the scale of the challenges this country faces, they should think very carefully before casting their vote. Because this isn’t a game.
