Moving markets today: Asia shares mixed before inflation data, oil prices decline; UK job vacancies drop; retail and technology earnings reports to dominate the week
Asian shares exhibited a mixed trend on Monday as investors awaited key inflation data from the United States, Japan, and Europe to gauge future interest rate moves. Oil prices continued to fall after a tough week. This week’s economic releases, particularly the U.S. inflation data, will shape the global interest rate outlook. Traders also brace for a packed week of voting events in the coming days. Israel had local elections amidst the conflict with Hamas, while the US presidential primary campaigns headed to Michigan. Thursday brings another British by-election, and Iranians will elect new parliament representatives on Friday. Here are five key takeaways for your day.
UK job vacancies down 15% year-on-year in January: Adzuna
British job ads hit a nearly three-year low in January, dropping by 15% compared to the previous year, Reuters reported. Adzuna, a recruitment data company, found only 867,436 job openings across Britain, the lowest since April 2021, down from over 1 million a year earlier. The ratio of job seekers to available positions rose to 1.81 from 1.48 compared to the previous year, signaling a job market slowdown.
A survey by the British Chambers of Commerce revealed that many British exporters and manufacturers felt the impact of disruptions in the Red Sea caused by attacks on shipping by Yemen’s Houthi rebels. 55% of exporters, 53% of manufacturers, and business-to-consumer service providers, including retailers and wholesalers, reported disruptions. Overall, 37% of surveyed businesses reported being affected by the situation, according to a Reuters reports.
Global house prices turn corner: FT report
Financial Times analysis of OECD data indicates the global decline in house prices, particularly in advanced economies, has largely ceased. Economists anticipate a turning point in the decade’s most significant property downturn. Nominal house prices in 37 industrialized OECD countries increased by 2.1% in Q3 2023 compared to the previous three months, rebounding from near stagnation earlier in the year, the FT reported. The analysis shows only about one-third of countries experienced a quarter-on-quarter decrease in house prices, down from over half at the start of the year.
Oil prices continue decline in Asian trading
Oil prices experienced a decline, continuing the downward trend observed in the previous session. This drop was influenced by concerns within the market that higher-than-anticipated inflation could potentially delay the expected interest rate cuts in the United States. Brent crude futures fell by 0.44% to $81.26 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) saw a decline of 0.46% to $76.14 per barrel. Despite ongoing attacks by Iran-aligned Houthis on shipping in the Red Sea, the conflict between Israel and Hamas has not significantly impacted the oil supply.
Week’s outlook: What to watch for
This week, there are several key economic events and data releases scheduled for various regions around the globe. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Federal Reserve closely monitors for inflation, will be released on Thursday. Additionally, inflation figures for the euro zone, Japan, and Australia are expected, along with a rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings in China.
Here’s a rundown of what else to anticipate this week: Monday: US new home sales figures. Tuesday: Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate survey, Japan’s February Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate data, British Retail Consortium’s February Shop Price Index, and US January durable goods orders data. Wednesday: Australia’s January CPI inflation rate data, Germany’s monthly retail sales figures, New Zealand’s central bank official cash rate decision, and US revised Q4 GDP growth figures. Thursday: China’s NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data, Germany’s February unemployment figures, CPI and HICP inflation rate data, India’s Q3 GDP figures, and US January personal spending and PCE price index data.
While the corporate reporting season is winding down, there may still be reports focusing on the construction and food sectors, along with speeches from central bankers. Wall Street will be closely watching as several major companies, including Li Auto, Lowe’s, eBay, Domino’s Pizza, and Salesforce, release their earnings reports. Additionally, there will be significant economic data to analyze and assess.
Asian markets see mild downturn
On Monday, S&P 500 futures, Nasdaq futures, EUROSTOXX 50 futures, and FTSE futures were all trading down by more than 0.20%. Meanwhile, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares, excluding Japan, saw a modest 0.12% increase. China’s blue chips CSI300 experienced a 0.7% dip. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose by 0.5%, building on last week’s 1.6% gain that pushed it to surpass its previous record high, with traders eyeing the 40,000 milestone. The dollar index edged up by a slight 0.03%, reaching 104. In the commodity markets, gold saw a marginal softening, trading at $2,030.75 per ounce.
