The battle lines are drawn for the campaign to succeed Caroline Lucas as the Member of Parliament for Brighton Pavilion. This will be a tough contest to call. Neither is likely to strike a knockout blow and it could come down to a split decision on points or, at least, a handful of votes.
The electoral tide is with Labour. When Caroline was first elected in 2010, Labour was way down in the polls, and the big M – momentum (not the left wing organisation) – was with the Greens who were poised to seize control of the city council the following year. The situation is now reversed. Labour enjoys a healthy national lead in the polls, notwithstanding the tepid Sir Keir Starmer. The Greens locally are now in the Doldrums having been humiliated in May’s elections to Brighton and Hove City Council while Labour had its best result ever.
Siân and Tom have different problems when it comes to commitments they might wish to make to the electorate. Tom can’t promise anything meaningful without incurring the wrath of Rachel Reeves if there is any cost attached. Meanwhile Siân has the opposite problem. Any promises she makes will be meaningless because, even if elected, she will never be in a position to deliver on any of them.
Labour should not take this as a reason to discourage people from voting Green. Caroline Lucas has shown that a lone Green MP can effectively shine a light on issues. Not so for yet another Labour backbencher who will be lost in the crowd, especially a backbencher in a party likely to have a stonking great majority. Hundreds of under-employed backbenchers will wish to be seen by the whips as being on best behaviour in order to secure promotion to the lowest bag-carrying position.
Tom will face tricky questions over local issues, such as the proposed closure of St Bartholomew’s school in the constituency. Can he criticise, even campaign against, the Labour administration that is currently consulting on the closure? Siân will have no such difficulty and is already taking a stand on issues for which she will never be responsible. Caroline used to distance herself from the Green administration so much so that people used to say that they would never vote Green again but had no hesitation in saying that they would vote for her.
There is one specific issues that Tom will need to clarify: his views on women’s sex-based rights. Labour dodged a bullet by rejecting Eddie Izzard as its candidate. Not only does Eddie not support single-sex spaces for women, he actually intrudes on them on a regular basis. Tom will need to say where he stands. The trans rights lobby, including in his own party, is very vociferous, especially on social media, but they are not significant electorally.
All current Labour MPs were elected on the following manifesto commitment: “Ensure that the single-sex-based exemptions contained in the Equality Act 2010 are understood and fully enforced in service provision.” Last summer the Labour Party shifted from its previous support for self-identification which would have allowed people to legally change gender without a medical diagnosis. The party has also recommitted itself to ensuring that some single-sex services and places should be accessed only by biological women.
The Greens have lost support among many women and men because of their uncompromising policies on trans rights over women’s sex-based rights. Siân has made this a major part of her pitch saying she will never compromise on this. She even stood down as party leader because of a slight adjustment in the Green Party policy. Siân should expect questions on her position on women’s sex-based rights and, if she stands by her long-standing position, she can expect to lose support. There is also an employment tribunal discrimination case being brought against the Green Party by Shahrar Ali who was dismissed from his role as party spokesperson because of his support for women’s sex-based rights. This case might yet reflect negatively on Siân.
Notwithstanding the above, in Tom and Siân we have two very engaging, strong candidates who will provide us voters in Brighton Pavilion with a pleasant dilemma as to who we want as our next MP. Support for women’s sex-based rights might just prove decisive in a close contest.
Andy Winter is a former councillor who worked in social care and homelessness services for 40 years
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