Real Estate Sector Responds to Recent UK Housing Price Data – TNT

Nationwide released its latest house price data yesterday – the first such update for the new month – revealing a marginal annual increase in property values.

While the rise was modest, it has nevertheless sparked widespread commentary from property professionals across the country, many of whom are eager to weigh in on what this signals for the housing market as we head into the final quarter of the year.

The data: 

According to Nationwide’s September (and Q3 regional) House Price Index, annual house price growth of 2.2% was recorded in September, similar to 2.1% seen in August.

Northern Ireland remained the top performing area with annual house price growth of 9.6%

Annual house price growth steady in September – Nationwide – Property Industry Eye

Industry reactions: 

Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, said: “High levels of supply and a growing sense of uncertainty as November’s Budget approaches are both keeping downwards pressure on demand and prices. Stable mortgage rates so far this year have encouraged buyers to act but a repeat of last year’s game of ‘guess the tax rise’ ahead of the Budget means hesitancy will rise over the next two months, which prompted us to recently downgrade our 2025 UK forecast to 1% from 3.5%. As it increasingly becomes a buyer’s market, sellers will need to be realistic with asking prices to get buyers through the door for a viewing.”

Matthew Thompson, head of sales at Chestertons: “September has been a challenging month as many buyers paused their decisions ahead of the November Budget. Uncertainty over potential tax changes is holding back activity but if the announcements bring clarity, confidence could return quickly and create an unusually busy end to the year.”

Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals: “The latest Nationwide figures highlight a housing market that remains resilient but finely balanced. Annual price growth of 2.2% in September shows little change from August, with month-on-month gains supported by easing borrowing costs and stronger wages. Yet, affordability remains stretched, and the marked rise in stock for sale is tempering upward momentum.

“For sellers, the record volume of price reductions this year underlines the importance of setting realistic expectations from the outset. Homes priced sensibly are finding buyers more quickly, with average transaction times improving since the start of 2025. Buyers motivated to complete before Christmas should act swiftly, as the window is narrowing.

“Looking ahead, sentiment will hinge on the interplay between inflation, monetary policy, and potential housing tax reforms in the Autumn Budget. While the base rate cut in August provided some relief, persistently high inflation clouds the outlook for further reductions. Equally, speculation around new property taxes is creating some uncertainty in the market. For now, pragmatism is driving progress, and those who adapt quickest will move quickest.”

Nathan Emerson, CEO at Propertymark: “A sustained upward trend in house prices reflects a resilient and increasingly competitive housing market. This increase can be attributed to several key factors, including limited housing supply, strong buyer demand, and favourable lending conditions that continue to support purchasing activity despite broader economic uncertainties.

“On a macroeconomic level, the increase in prices is consistent with the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand. Construction activity in many regions has not kept pace with population growth and urban migration, exacerbating shortages, particularly in metropolitan areas. This supply constraint has intensified competition among buyers, placing upward pressure on prices.

“Additionally, while interest rates have seen moderate adjustments, they remain at their lowest since mid-2023, which continues to incentivise borrowing. Many prospective homeowners and investors are capitalising on this environment, further fuelling demand.

“While rising house prices reflect confidence in the housing sector, they also present challenges that require coordinated responses to maintain affordability and inclusivity across the market.”

Guy Gittins, CEO of Foxtons: “UK house prices have continued to edge higher on both a monthly and annual basis, further demonstrating the resilience and consistency of the market, which has been the theme for much of 2025.

“Progress during the traditionally quieter summer months has been steady and, with the added stability of another base rate hold, the outlook for the remainder of the year remains positive, despite some uncertainty surrounding the upcoming budget.

“Sellers looking to complete their sale before Christmas need to be entering the market now with the right agent and an added sense of urgency.”

Verona Frankish, CEO of Yopa: “Whilst we’re not seeing fireworks in terms of house price performance as we head into October, the overarching air of stability that has materialised in recent months suggests that market activity remains robust.

“We’re now entering a traditionally busy time of year, and the expectation is that this momentum will only build.

“That said, those hoping for Father Christmas to deliver a completed sale by December 25th need to act now, whether that means listing their property for sale or getting their finances in order to purchase. The window to move before Christmas is now open, but it won’t stay that way for long.”

Marc von Grundherr, director of Benham and Reeves: “Another month of steady growth demonstrates the remarkable consistency of the UK property market.

“London, of course, remains the outlier and growth has been slower across the capital. However, even the most modest gains equate to thousands of pounds in real terms given the capital’s higher values.

“The message is clear: this is a market that refuses to stand still. While growth may not be headline-grabbing, it is sustainable, it is reliable, and it is happening in spite of seasonal distractions, interest rate speculation and political noise.”

Jonathan Hopper, CEO of Garrington Property Finders: “The headline figure has crept up from falling to flat.

“In August, Nationwide’s data showed that average prices were falling on both a monthly and a quarterly basis.

“Last month the national average inched back into growth, but we’re still in soft landing territory. The pace of price rises has slowed in most regions, with prices almost stagnant in parts of southern England.

“The slowdown is sharpest in the commuter belt around London, where the annual pace of growth dropped from 2.6% in the second quarter to just 0.3% over the past three months.

“The problem here is that the number of sellers far outstrips the number of serious buyers. Even in highly desirable areas, sellers are having to price their homes keenly just to grab buyers’ attention, and many are offering discounts or sweetening the price in other ways – perhaps by making a contribution to the buyer’s stamp duty costs – to get a deal done.

“This issue is being compounded by the uncertainty surrounding next month’s Budget. Rumours of a shake-up in property and wealth taxes have led many discretionary buyers to sit on their hands and this has applied the brakes to prices in prime areas.

“Things are brisker at lower price points, especially among first-time buyers who are the most likely to benefit from last month’s reduction in the Bank of England’s base rate.

“But while these factors matter, the market is ultimately driven by the forces of supply and demand – and this is where the gap between north and south is turning into a gulf.

“Average prices in northern England rose almost five times faster than they did in the south during the third quarter of the year, and Scotland and Wales both posted growth rates four times higher than that of southern England.

“In the south, the abundance of supply compared to the number of buyers has allowed buyers to dictate the tempo. Deals are still being done, but only pragmatic sellers are likely to succeed in what is a very price-sensitive autumn market.

“On the frontline there is a clear distinction between those who need to move and those who want to. Needs-based buyers are progressing their plans but negotiating hard to de-risk against possible fiscal changes, helped by thinner competition from other purchasers.

“Wealthier movers are delaying decisions until the Chancellor shows her hand. This should be one of the market’s busiest times of year, yet it is idling in neutral, split between momentum and paralysis until November’s Autumn Statement releases the handbrake.”

Annual house price growth steady in September – Nationwide