Reactions from the Industry to HMRC Property Transaction Statistics – TNT

Residential property transactions increased by 104% year-on-year on a seasonally adjusted basis in March to 177,130 ahead of the stamp duty threshold change, the latest figures have revealed.

According to HMRC, transactions were also 62% higher than the previous month.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, house transactions totalled 164,650 – 89% up on the previous year and 80% higher than February.

Nick Leeming, Chairman of Jackson-Stops, commented: “Buyer demand surged in March, driving completions forward ahead of new Stamp Duty rates taking effect, distorting the market somewhat. As we saw during the 2020 Stamp Duty Holiday, fixed deadlines can profoundly shape market dynamics and influence buyer and seller behaviours.

“Optimism remains high that this momentum will flow into the Spring Bounce, as buyers resume their searches ahead of summer and the new school year. Across the Jackson-Stops network, annually we have seen growth in completions, new instructions and new applicants.

“Key markets such as Blandford, Cranbrook, Midhurst, Reigate and Woburn saw over ten new applicants per listing in March. This reflects the enduring draw of areas with outstanding schools, excellent amenities and strong City transport links – ideal for buyers looking to strike the balance between returning to the office and preserving slower paced weekends.”

Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals, said: “The latest HMRC property transaction figures reveal the momentum that was clearly fuelled by proactive buyers securing their moves ahead of the widely publicised Stamp Duty threshold changes.

“This pre-deadline surge, a common feature before tax adjustments as buyers rush to beat the clock, highlights the strong underlying desire among people to move home. While we naturally anticipate a period of adjustment as the market settles into the new Stamp Duty landscape from April onwards, this is a well-understood pattern. Buyers and the market will adapt, as they historically do.

“Crucially, the foundations for sustained activity moving forward look positive. The market will continue to be underpinned by ‘needs-based’ movers pursuing their essential life plans. Added to this is the natural boost from the Spring and Summer months, typically the most vibrant period for property transactions.

“Perhaps most significantly, the improving landscape for mortgage rates, combined with the growing expectation of interest rate cuts later in the year, should provide a floor for activity. These factors should help bolster buyer confidence and affordability.

“So, while the first quarter of this year reflects a unique snapshot influenced by the tax deadline, the underlying drivers – resilient demand, positive seasonality, and improving financial conditions – give us solid grounds for cautious optimism about the health and direction of the property market throughout the rest of 2025.”

Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, commented: “The rush to avoid Stamp Duty threshold changes across England and Northern Ireland spurred many people to prioritise their purchase before the recent 1 April 2025 deadline. However, it will now be key to see sustained momentum in the sector during the traditionally busy spring and summer months. As the housing market starts to follow the usual buoyant seasonal trends, we are likely to see an influx of properties for sale for those in a prime position to find their next ideal home.

“Recent data demonstrates a growing array of two-year fixed-rate mortgages delivering more affordability that only twelve months previous, giving consumers more choice and greater financial flexibility. With many mortgage rates starting to dip down again, there is still yet some distance to go before they are still generally lower than they were prior to 2022. Should inflation decrease to 2 per cent or less, it would give the Bank of England potentially far more flexibility to consider further interest rate cuts, which would typically result a far wider range of more affordable mortgage products in the medium to long term.”

Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank commented, “Transactions in March were 59% above the five-year average for the month due to the stamp duty cliff edge. While we should see a lull in April, tariff turbulence has put slight downwards pressure on mortgage rates as economic slowdown risks have grown, which will support demand over the next several months. The risk is that inflationary pressures creep back into the system for reasons that include recent employer tax changes, which could mean the Bank of England slows the pace of rate cuts. Together with renewed speculation ahead of the autumn Budget, it could curb activity after the summer.”

Neil Knight, divisional director at Spicerhaart Part Exchange and Group Clients, said: “Another monthly increase in transactions was to be expected as buyers hurried to beat the stamp duty deadline. A key benefactor has been the new build sector as it remained one of the few places where the tight timescales were still achievable. What happens next remains the elephant in the room as the increased cost to buy impacts affordability and inevitably hits transaction numbers.

“Increasing competition on mortgage rates will certainly help to counteract this, as will further movement on the base rate. There’s no question though that builders and developers will still need to respond to this change in the market and explore other avenues and opportunities to stimulate demand and support buyers – in lieu of government support.

“Alongside deposit boosts or equity schemes, we are already seeing increasing enquiries coming through part-exchange or assisted move propositions, helping those already in the market to buy and sell in an efficient and cost-effective way.”

Andrew Lloyd, MD at Search Acumen, added: “The impressive flurry in residential buyer activity as we reached the end of the Stamp Duty holiday was mirrored by a similarly strong performance in the commercial real estate sector.

“Investors were drawn to shopping centres and warehouses as retail emerged as the leading sector delivering strong returns.

“While earnings growth and steady demand for commercial property point towards a promising summer, transaction processes remain plagued by time-consuming inefficiencies that risk stalling market activity at a critical moment.

“The evidence is clear. Embracing digital tools to modernise current antiquated procedures will help unlock the full potential of the market.”