‘There remains a significant percentage who will treat Senedd elections as opportunities for protest votes and opportunities to voice discontent with Westminster’
An expert in political psychology has predicted many in Wales could use the Senedd election in 2026 to cast “protest votes”. Dr Joseph Phillips, politics lecturer at Cardiff University, told WalesOnline it isn’t unusual for people to treat Senedd elections differently to general elections.
He explained: “There are some that will treat them as elections to government in their own right and that percentage is substantial now – certainly more substantial than it was. But there remains a significant percentage who will treat Senedd elections as opportunities for protest votes and opportunities to voice discontent with Westminster.”
It comes after we visited one of Wales’ most deprived estates to ask as many people as we could who they were likely to vote for next May – and 80% told us they would be voting for Reform UK. You can read about that here. There has understandably been a clear effort by Welsh Labour members in the Senedd – including first minister Eluned Morgan and health minister Jeremy Miles – to distance themselves from the UK Labour Government off the back of the cuts announced last month.
Some said nothing could happen between now and next May which would change their minds, while the majority of people we spoke to raised immigration and welfare cuts as their main concerns, two issues which are not the responsibility of the Welsh Government. On some voters not caring about the nuances of devolution, Dr Phillips said it isn’t unusual to see voters’ opinions focus less on the issues which its devolved nations can solve.
He said: “(Some voters) might recognise that some of the issues, for example around immigration, are not in the Senedd’s control, but still wish to register their vote according to those issues. This is something you tend to see in countries that have multiple layers of government, like in the US where in state elections governors come into office or get booted out because of how people feel about the president at the time.”
On people consistently raising immigration among their main concerns ahead of next year’s election, Dr Phillips said: “Generally speaking across the west people tend to want less immigration, though when they’re asked more nuanced questions, they will have more nuanced answers around its benefits and drawbacks. When you have a party which has staked its reputation on this issue and which is continually mentioning the issue it’s simply going to be more salient in the minds of people, and the more politicians speak on it the more it will factor in people’s decisions.
“In 2024 the discussion was not so much around the benefits and drawbacks of immigration, it was which party could have the tougher stance on immigration. In that environment what might have seemed quite radical and populist ideas suddenly seem normal because other parties aren’t really differentiating themselves. And once that discussion has been normalised, they’re going to vote for the party which has been talking about immigration the whole time – not those who have just got on the wagon so to speak.”
Last week The Guardian reported on figures from an internal Labour survey the paper had seen which showed the new voting system could mean many more seats for Reform UK. The early survey put Reform UK on 25% with Labour and Plaid Cymru tied on 21%. General polls have all three parties very close together currently. Welsh Labour did not respond to the news when approached by WalesOnline. For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation, sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here
Survation’s latest poll suggests Reform UK would rise to 24% in May 2026 – level with Plaid Cymru and 3% behind Labour. The survey suggested less than two-thirds of 2024 Labour voters were prepared to back the party next spring.
2026 will see the first Senedd election which will be determined by a proportional representation system meaning the Senedd will broadly represent the share of votes across the country. Figures suggest the new system will favour Reform. The party came second in 13 of the 32 Welsh constituencies in the general election in 2024, securing 16.9% of the vote across Wales. Reform’s share of the vote in Wales in 2024 was also greater than Plaid Cymru, who won four seats.
But Dr Phillips said it is still impossible to predict and much needs to happen within Reform UK in Wales prior to next May. He added: “What remains to be seen is how Reform can translate general support in the polls to organisation on the ground. Ground campaigns do still matter. It might be harder for them to field higher quality candidates, to promote themselves in a given area, and also the longer they don’t name someone to be a candidate for first minister – that’s going to create challenges.
“They probably won’t want to name Nigel Farage because a lot of the voters for Reform will be first time voters and their support is likely to be softer than someone who has voted for the same party for the last 40 years for example. If Reform choose Nigel Farage as their first minister candidate my assumption is some will think Reform are using Wales as a starter polity. I think there is a huge proportion of Wales who would not react kindly to that.”
When asked how many seats she believed Labour could lose to Reform UK First Minister Eluned Morgan told WalesOnline: “Because the system is entirely different it’s difficult to say. We’re taking the Reform threat seriously. We recognise there is frustration.
“As far as I’m concerned Reform is not a totally Welsh party – they don’t really understand Wales. They’re likely to fly Nigel Farage in for a couple of weeks and then he’ll disappear again never to be seen again. They don’t care about Wales, there’s nothing Welsh about them. The only thing we know about them in terms of policies is they want to introduce insurance to the NHS. I don’t think there are many people in Wales who would be signing up for that.”
